SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 46
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Very strong numbers for Hagan, indeed. But could this contest actually be even closer than SUSA’s numbers show? Consider the following: SUSA’s likely voter turnout model puts the African-American vote at 20% of the total sample. However, CNN’s 2004 exit polling had the black vote at 26%. With Obama at the top of the ticket, you’ve gotta believe that the energized black turnout will push that share far closer to 26% (and maybe even more) than to 20%.
If this poll is confirmed by others, it might be time to change this one from Republican Favored to just Leans Republican. With Obama at the top, you would have to think the youth vote with also swing to Kay Hagan, which would be enough to give her a tiny, tiny edge.
– Blacks seem to be seriously underpolled. They made up 26% of NC voters in 2004 and in this survey that number was only 20%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…
– We are only down 1 point among the group who has already made up their mind. Among those who say they could still change their mind Dole leads by 31. This makes it obvious that Dole’s support is “softer” than Hagen’s.
– Only 4% undecided is VERY low this early in a race.
– Most of the undecides are Dems and Indies, good for us.
– We are winning the the oldest two demographic categories but losing the two youngest??? WTF?
– Independents break 56-39 for Dole. If we can close that gap we will win.
Charlotte has been trending blue lately. It also is a young professional city. In the city that elected Harvey Gantt Mayor in the 80’s, Obama will be very strong in November, IMO.
There is definately room for growth in Hagan’s numbers in the Charlotte region.
One downside is that Charlotte’s Mayor is the GOP nominee for Governor. I would assume that the Senate race is directly between the POTUS and Governor on the ballot, so maybe it will be a minimal impact there.
If this poll is correct, and there are other ones that indicate it is close,this race is now closer than MN, ME, and OR.
My biggest fear is that Dole will heed this early “wake up call”. Nevertheless, I think Hagan will come through.
than this poll paints. Way to track the crosstabs. African American’s were very underpolled, and Kay Hagan is probably still fighting some name recognition issues. Good deal.
If anything the black vote will go UP. Also I find it hard to see her losing indies by that much and losing the youth vote.
Hagan is in a very good place.
to see Hagan hanging in there so close when her name recognition is still low compared to All-Star Liddy Dole.
NC voter registration stats as of 5/17/08 – 5,811,853 total registered voters.
DEM 45%, 2,633,728
REP 33%, 1,933,395
UNA 21%, 1,244,730
White 75%, 4,375,668
Black 21%, 1,203,822
Am Indian 1%, 44,440
Hispanic 1%, 50,474
Other 2%, 90,541
Male 45%, 2,612,740
Female 55%, 3,174,400
http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.u…
Hagan won the Democratic primary with 60% of the 1.3 million Democratic votes cast. Dole got 1.2 million votes in the 2002 General Election. NC Democrats are excited.
Recent Results for this seat:
2002 Senate Race
Dole 53.6% 1,248,684
Bowles 45% 1,047,983
1996 Senate Race
Helms 52.6% 1,345,833
Gantt 45.9% 1,173,875
1990 Senate Race
Helms 52.5% 1,088,331
Gantt 47.4% 981,573